Read Full Report: Factors Shaping the Future of China's Military published by RAND

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Key Findings

• Demographic Challenges: China’s population is declining, but the impact on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is uncertain.
• Fertility Trends: China’s declining birth rate is in line with global trends, but revoking the one-child policy has had limited effects.
• PLA Recruitment Issues: Despite a youth population over three times larger than the United States, attracting top-tier talent remains a challenge due to cultural and social factors.
• Economic Implications: China’s past growth was driven by demographic advantages, but an aging population and slowing economic expansion present future constraints.
• Modernization Efforts: The PLA seeks to transition to a highly skilled, technology-driven force, but cultural and social barriers hinder progress.

Summary

China faces a dual challenge: a shrinking youth population and an urgent need to modernize the PLA. While China’s overall population is still large, declining fertility rates and an aging society present long-term concerns. The report highlights that China’s military will not face an immediate recruitment crisis but struggles to attract top talent due to cultural, social, and economic factors.

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Despite 11 million annual university graduates and high youth unemployment, many young people in China do not see the military as an attractive career path. Issues such as physical fitness, mental health concerns, and the harsh living conditions of PLA service deter many recruits. Additionally, China's military has traditionally relied on a top-down command structure, which may be incompatible with the more autonomous, high-tech warfare that modern conflicts require.

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Report Guide

Overview of the Report’s Structure

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This RAND report provides a comprehensive assessment of the key factors influencing the development of China’s military over the coming decades. The study evaluates demographic trends, economic constraints, recruitment challenges, and modernization efforts. The report is structured as follows:

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1. Demographic Challenges & Population Trends (Pages 1-5)
2. Economic Pressures on the PLA (Pages 6-9)
3. Recruitment & Talent Acquisition (Pages 10-14)
4. Modernization & Technological Upgrades (Pages 15-19)
5. Strategic Implications for Global Security (Pages 20-24)

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1. Demographic Challenges & Population Trends (Pages 1-5)

The one-child policy, revoked in 2015, did little to reverse demographic decline, and new incentives for larger families have had limited success.

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🔍 Key Takeaways:

• China’s fertility rate has fallen below 1.2 births per woman, well below the...

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